Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 104.858687 120.016696 137.108868 157.909829 182.674377 211.379982 247.412418
2025-12-28 87.997773 108.054608 132.721206 165.670599 209.113318 265.264298 344.713138
2026-01-04 77.014853 99.658766 129.397029 172.111453 233.242358 319.741835 455.477483
2026-01-11 68.971844 93.062891 126.423564 177.302000 255.355554 374.865461 580.749126
2026-01-18 62.072979 86.669845 122.255295 179.337900 272.303830 424.900840 711.074399
2026-01-25 56.114637 80.641660 117.470373 179.180096 285.106791 470.196398 845.638646
2026-02-01 50.419814 74.211194 111.062576 175.133947 290.206735 502.620529 965.028315
2026-02-08 45.632166 68.589970 105.140055 170.822480 293.733455 532.404412 1087.836552
2026-02-15 41.672062 63.835164 100.009554 167.016210 297.279035 562.611574 1221.170852
2026-02-22 40.577958 63.608411 102.361746 176.889674 328.881898 657.985747 1546.795462
2026-03-01 38.305289 61.152160 100.541637 178.618973 344.209062 721.474353 1816.628599
2026-03-08 36.383248 59.100915 99.187478 181.001426 361.289780 793.357204 2143.317975
2026-03-15 34.164821 56.406457 96.519429 180.690075 373.128253 857.685876 2487.385023
2026-03-22 33.496002 56.431885 98.942679 191.329815 412.762969 1007.515133 3216.033607
2026-03-29 32.548900 55.844904 100.106077 199.442404 448.224648 1158.695377 4066.172208
2026-04-05 31.473806 54.907467 100.455241 205.779496 480.698684 1313.422892 5065.871280
2026-04-12 30.107188 53.281495 99.220255 208.254917 503.456286 1446.265211 6092.153547
2026-04-19 28.618597 51.287708 97.010582 208.075314 518.810315 1560.413416 7142.938954
2026-04-26 26.861842 48.621188 93.118043 203.227688 519.578056 1622.911371 7969.289805
2026-05-03 25.231741 46.091538 89.295509 198.064924 518.439108 1678.677091 8826.490326
2026-05-10 23.787892 43.839056 85.881347 193.510921 518.335576 1739.345313 9802.726410
2026-05-17 23.665589 44.308825 88.559814 205.332789 573.837531 2058.778562 13271.627884
2026-05-24 22.847886 43.250729 87.666605 207.406078 597.492837 2250.908010 16066.380905